Although the complexity of this situation makes it impossible to make any forecasts, consider: a worst case scenario is much much worse than stagflation. Just wrap your mind around the consequences the merely the two outcomes described above: a fair bit of famine and supply shortfalls, even potentially problems with maintaining some critical infrastructure due to chip scarcity. Some of that productive capacity loss could become permanent due to business failures.
And let us remind you….so far we are discussing only what the West has done to itself. What happens if Russia goes full Smoot-Hawley and retaliates, or engages in the passive aggressive version, as in no formal pronunciations, just supplies go to friendlies and the West gets chocked down, not 100% but enough to feel like that.
The Democratic Party is in the process of executing a controlled flight into terrain. Too bad that we are along for the ride.
"But understand we have crossed a Rubicon in the last few months that financial institutions and Govts can take money because they do not like that person or their activities."Breaking fundamental trust, much like how the Central banks have done so with Russia's Reserves of late. A currency crisis is now inevitable.
The reason that the recent escalations in canada have happened is worth mentioning. The state has had no ability to mobilize their civilian infiltrators due to them all being broke losers that can't get their hands on a $150k truck. As such the "respectable" levers they have come to rely upon as of late failed.
So now the war on terror has come home. The OFAC sanctions regime is essentially being extended to Canadians. You can take it to the bank that every other western government will soon say "Sulla did it, why can't I?"
This is essentially the abolition of all freedoms, as all rights require resources to exercise. Compare this to all the Canadian provinces which withdrew restrictions in response to the protests. How did we get here? Because there are no levers the peasants have to pull on the feds, while they do against the powerless provinces.
There are a number of signals and feedback mechanisms which can rein in unaccountable government. Voting failed long ago for the simple reason of not expanding the legislature. There are too many people per representative to have any coherent message possible, and so the only thing left to them is theft.
Can we rhetorically turn them from error via peaceful petition for redress? Of course not. More than half the electorate will always put feelings before reason thanks to expanding the franchise to the undeserving. The government also heavily infiltrates and outright pays for much of the media. Anything you say against them is drowned in a sea of their white noise of emotional pap and propaganda.
What's next in the escalation chain of signals? Hunger. Can we starve the beast? No. They can print money and borrow longer than any individual or group with a grievance can hold out. They feel no compunction about crushing and imprisoning anyone who dares withhold their support in the form of tax evasion.
So, we are left with the cartridge box. Throughout history, the record was actually quite clear: Terrorism Works (TM). People willing to kill and be killed over an issue is the strongest signal anyone can send and those that don't listen are fools. The last 40 years unfortunately has proven the government is totally deaf to even this strongest of signal. You would think that people willing to hijack and fly planes into buildings might make them ask what would possess anyone to do so.
Instead they cynically exploited it to grab more power, as they do with any resistance whatsoever. They are nothing but a chinese finger trap. This suggests a straightforward course of action.
Encourage their worst impulses and profit along the way. Remember that like their emotional power base they are little more than drug addicts looking for the next hit on their power trip. Let them start World War 3 and turn America into the USSR. There are no other signals which will turn them short of them living worse as kings than they could as peasants in free nations. Which can only be accomplished by their own errors.
Guys like Peter Thiel have it right. Sell them flim-flam that helps them on their power trip. Hustle wine and cats to these delusional power junkies.
