The bull case for bitcoin (and other crypto variants) goes essentially like so: Monetization is going to happen, and the Gresham's Law saver pile-in will make it go "to da moon".

For those of you like myself who have paid attention since the 07-08 GFC, this is all sounding real familiar. Despite a spectacular run up, the best hype in the world, lunatic money printing and thousands of years of precedent gold still couldn't kill the dollar.

Much of this is because there is a category error in this thinking. Both crypto and USD are currencies and not money. They are mere vouchers for...something else (money). The precise nature of that something else is actually what matters.

As such, Gold being a money can't beat something it's not even in a race against. The bullion banks on the other hands were trounced handily because of both network effects and the intrinsic value disparities involved with the backing money.

Now you might be asking "hold on, the USD isn't backed by a dang thing!" That is unfortunately quite mistaken. In fact, in the case of everything but stablecoins (which are themselves bizarre backing themselves against other currencies and not monies), it is actually crypto which is backed by little more than hot air.

This is not to say there aren't strengths inherent to crypto, just that they are far from unique or non-transferable to other currencies. In fact, many of the fiat currencies out there are already experimenting with their own take on distributed ledgers.

The point here is simple; the future is crypto, yes. But not in the way those of us who wish for freedom want it. It's gonna be either a USD backed stablecoin or a directly FED issued shitcoin. The precedent already exists considering USD (which are *also* just ledger entries in a payment network you pay fees to use) to property, so this will be extended to crypto despite it being clear nonsense as pointed out by Vin Armani and others, regardless of the outcome of Bozo Craig Wright's lolsuit.

The reason for this is incredibly simple. It's the riddle of steel. Gold is strong, but H-Bombs are stronger.

Not only are ICBMs the most rare and expensive things humanity have ever produced; they also give one the power to never take no for an answer. It should come as no shock that they have all been driven out of circulation. They are more jealously hoarded than dragons do gold.

To be quite clear, the US Dollar is the empire. This is why despite an incredible speculative mania and it's many technical strengths against fiat currency, Crypto will still be a god that failed. Eventually the US Empire will too; but this vortex of corruption powered by satanic weaponry (despite it's feet of clay) have much longer legs than our current bull market.

This also sort of alludes to the core weakness in the dream of crypto. Sure, they can't seize your account without your consent. They can on the other hand hold you in contempt of court indefinitely and ensure you never enjoy the fruits of your labor, which is actually a worse outcome than if they had in fact seized it. Turns out Osama had the right idea to kill the dollar after all.

There will never be an escape from the power dimension of money. This is because freedom of action is the most valuable thing a person can have. And why governments invent nightmare weapons like MIRVed H-Bombs on ICBMs; so they can accumulate even more freedom of action.

There's a reason the ring of power was a gold ring. Like the Ring of Gyges, it's a platonic ideal of authority unburdened by responsibility. And what organization (and it's money!) on earth more fully embodies that ethos? You can take it to the bank!

POSTSCRIPT

On a serious note, we're about to get some truly incredible inflation thanks to record levels of capital destruction, margin debt and low interest rates. This is gonna send bond yields to "da moon"...unless the FED decides to sop up all this dough in an accumulator (which is what IOER did with the GFC) and spread it out over a number of years to conceal massive deflation due to malinvestments liquidating.

In short, they're gonna try and kick the can down the road yet again. The difference this time is the massive iceberg of capital destruction nobody yet fully grips the extent of thanks to lockdown. As such, they're guaranteed to fumble this one, and badly. It's unclear whether it will be in the direction of inflation or deflation. The only thing which is clear is that either the savers & producers or the wall street casino will get run over. My money's on the former.

If we think our market is a bizarro world with 0 connection to reality, I think we ain't seen nothin' yet. This might finally be Mises' crack-up boom. The incredible social upheval over the last year and the Cathedral's total incorrigible dementia pushing us towards civil unrest won't make this any better.

Essentially what's going on with all political activism at a high level. It's 1000% corrupt grifting from bottom to top.

Gib new plane plox. Self licking ice cream cone

I had a feeling the vTuber future being brought to everyone was closer than anyone imagined.

All talking heads and pols will now be Eliza Kassan and John Henry Eden henceforth.

Given the inventor has been sidelined, one suspects they were extraordinary flops.

Good enough for government work

Hype is the fundamentals (for all currencies!). I figured out things were a game of musical chairs pump and dump when I realized this grew out of the 07-08 gold speculations. It's the same pyramid scheme as back then (which is why gold has never retraced it's old gains).

Every rationalist is a disappointed lover. The rationalist becomes a rationalist because he has one simple dream: he wants the world to be ruled by reason. This dream always lets him down and always will.

It’s easy to fault the rationalists for the semiotic arrogance of their self-selected label. As if no one in history had ever thought of being rational! This is uber cringe.

These clowns always have no conception of the sins/virtues and how they just so happen to line up on emotion/reason. It's always the same old fight by the clueless.

The disappointed lover keeps being disappointed. And he keeps coming back: like the dolphin, he enjoys his rest in motion. The dissident is trying to get out of Plato’s cave. The rationalist is trying to furnish it. Tough when the trees are so drippy, and the sun is so weak—the upholstery gets moldy so fast…

Late in any empire, there is an air of dismal futility to all these efforts at reform. Since talking about what should be done is a pastime, a profession, a pretense that will never cease before they stop having Super Bowls, the discourse continues. Everyone really knows the real answer: nothing can be done. Nothing will be done.

Doubly so because the woke BS is just a right wing conspiracy conning them into not paying attention to the wars and the vortex of corruption.

Remember: every phone has a black box.

Klein's core thesis is that it's all because the Dixiecrats flipped R in the 70s, and the answer is to disenfranchise the republicans forever.

Of course, being in the Yank matrix, SSC can't see what's staring himself in the face, even though he has a hint by alluding to WTF happened in 1971?

The reality is that the dixiecrats wouldn't have made their devils' bargain with the party of lincoln had the Yanks not decided to just print money to the moon so that they could do literally everything they wanted and ignore all others. Yanno, kinda like the yanks did back during reconstruction.

It really is that simple to fix the country. Just stop believing Yank lies. Or, wait until they blow up in their faces again.

SSC thinks prediction markets are the answer we need for Full Communism Now(TM). He fails to realize it will fail for the same reason; participants optimize for success. You get more of what you reward, less of what you punish.

NO SNITCHIN'

When you realize the implications for crypto you'll be more bullish than you ever thought possible

MICHAEL VICK DID NOTHING WRONG

Author suspects an anschluss will be the end scenario, just because the locals aren't enthusiastic enough about their local tyrants. Probably correct; modern militaries are in a box as nobody intelligent enough to be an effective fighter is patriotic anymore. That leaves fighting for ones' family or plunder (the former is being actively undermined by the government, and the latter expressly prohibited).

In short, the mechanics that made mass mobilization work have collapsed for the westernized (read: feminized) countries. This will make them international "sick men" who can do practically nothing about encroachment once their peer competitors such as China reach similar levels of capitalization.

This month's "must read". This will breathe new life into the conservatives.

What seems clear is that Biden’s inauguration marks the hegemony of an American oligarchy that sees its relationship with China as a shield and sword against their own countrymen. Like Athens’ Thirty Tyrants, they are not simply contemptuous of a political system that recognizes the natural rights of all its citizens that are endowed by our creator; they despise in particular the notion that those they rule have the same rights they do. Witness their newfound respect for the idea that speech should only be free for the enlightened few who know how to use it properly. Like Critias and the pro-Sparta faction, the new American oligarchy believes that democracy’s failures are proof of their own exclusive right to power—and they are happy to rule in partnership with a foreign power that will help them destroy their own countrymen.

What does history teach us about this moment? The bad news is that the Thirty Tyrants exiled notable Athenian democrats and confiscated their property while murdering an estimated 5% of the Athenian population. The good news is that their rule lasted less than a year.

I suspect things will get far, far bloodier.

Part and parcel of our "let's never take responsibility for anything" emotional ninny culture

Glad to see what guys like the daily reckoning figured out 15 years ago finally getting some more mainstream traction. Despite all our efforts, productivity has flatlined; we are strangled by red tape, or crowded out by .gov domination of the sciences. The guy's "Qualitative" focus is essentially just looking at productivity from the side. We are no better in any major field essentially because we are no more productive (in fact measurably less so).

If you don't really need containment...It might just work!

He's correct that it's tech which will actually liberate you. This was the core thesis of "Tragedy and Hope" and is not wrong.

If the USA is so powerful, how is it that it failed to crush Russia? What about Iran? Or, in extremis, Venezuela? Yet, even the the last case, the “best” this supposed World Hegemon did was send a few clueless ex-special ops to get caught and give case of hysterical laughter to the entire Latin American continent!

The inability of the empire to yanno...be imperial is a slow poison, much like the factions I speak of in the previous post.

He correctly sees that lack of retaliation against enemies (showing weakness) to political factions is usually what causes revolutions. What he doesn't understand is that the Wokeists are already in charge, and this is more of a mass religious conversion of the elite.

I think the bias against the able in this new religion has planted the seed for future revolution, however. Without the able backing them they will increasingly rely on a hostile faction, making revolution inevitable.

Unz is right to point out the suppression of the Hunter story was the "real steal".

"I am Open" movement reminds me of Greeks' "We won't pay". Hope they keep it up.