However, measures to slow down an epidemic have never succeeded in lowering the mortality rate. Worse, by spreading the disease over time, they make the population vulnerable to a second and then a third wave of contamination, until a vaccine is made available on a massive scale and requires at least 18 months of preparation. While populations that refuse to be placed under house arrest gradually acquire herd immunity that protects them during new waves of contamination. Contrary to the dominant discourse, current forms of confinement are therefore likely to increase the number of deaths considerably over time. Since some countries do not practise these measures, such as South Korea or Sweden, it will be possible to compare the results when new waves of contamination occur. The hyper-precautionary policy of political leaders may then backfire.

This strategy does not stem from medicine, which has never practised isolation of healthy people, but from good management of medical resources to prevent a massive influx of sick people so as not to clog hospitals. Few industrialized countries, such as Sweden, have rejected this administrative approach to the epidemic. They have opted for a medical approach and therefore do not practise generalised containment.

The first lesson of the current period is therefore that in developed countries, administrative logic is now superior to medical experience.