Big T says 2 weeks, Hersh says this weekend. While the timing is ultimately irrelevant, this seems likely to happen, as the (corrupt, self-interested) motivation is the same as the Iraq and anti-daesh intervention; to steal oil and enrich a few Israeli firms our elites are balls deep in alongside our defense industry. We're also due another war (US goes in on average every 6 years).

If the theory from this book is ultimately correct, I would suspect the same forces remain at work. My prediction for such a scenario is that we'll go for a civil-war causing regime change operation with revanchist ethnic Azeris expanding the oil theft about Tabriz. This will enrich the Turks & Azeris enough to go along.

This will torch the MAGA movement entirely, and we'll get neoliberal regimes until the ship fully goes under.

It remains a very real question whether full on regime change is actually logistically possible for the US to pull off. The possibility that this turns into a real debacle is nonzero.