Say what you will about the man, but it's hard not to respect a man who liveth by the sword that does not shrink from dying by it. I think this bit bodes quite well for the odds for reunification:

The Belarusian military is dramatically different from the Ukrainian military which had practically lost its combat readiness decades ago, which was then purged from all real patriots, and which was fantastically corrupt. In contrast, the comparatively small Belarusian military is, by all accounts, very well-trained, decently equipped and commanded by very competent officers.

Given Luka's Severan response so far (feed the soldiers, live in peace), I doubt seriously the color revolution has a chance.