If you believe their statements, anyhow. That said, the FED will torture the data until it does what they want it to, so I suspect Wenzel's analysis of the bureaucrat mind is probably solid. Of course, they still have an upper bound of 3% being the point at which the USG is instantaneously insolvent, so don't expect anything more than a few bp, which is close to meaningless. That is, unless the entire goal is a controlled demolition of the economy...