I did not have an initial number at the start of the quarter other than “I’ll take the under, way under” in response to initial estimates from GDPNow.

I expect I will be saying the same thing again.

The only things holding up the economy are housing and aircraft orders. I believe the latter has skewed many of the soft data regional Fed reports.

Hard data is starting to look ugly. Autos have rolled over, bank lending has rolled over, retail sales have been weak, and credit card defaults are up sharply.

Which is why they're gonna take us to war.