The big mistake is a curious one for a website that focuses on statistics. Unlike virtually every other forecast we publish at FiveThirtyEight — including the primary and caucus projections I just mentioned — our early estimates of Trump’s chances weren’t based on a statistical model. Instead, they were what we “subjective odds” — which is to say, educated guesses.

In the court’s ruling, Judge Janice Rogers Brown expresses concern about the ability of any business entity – public, private, or in-between – to “co-opt the state’s coercive power to impose a disadvantageous regulatory regime on its market competitors.”