Although the complexity of this situation makes it impossible to make any forecasts, consider: a worst case scenario is much much worse than stagflation. Just wrap your mind around the consequences the merely the two outcomes described above: a fair bit of famine and supply shortfalls, even potentially problems with maintaining some critical infrastructure due to chip scarcity. Some of that productive capacity loss could become permanent due to business failures.
And let us remind you….so far we are discussing only what the West has done to itself. What happens if Russia goes full Smoot-Hawley and retaliates, or engages in the passive aggressive version, as in no formal pronunciations, just supplies go to friendlies and the West gets chocked down, not 100% but enough to feel like that.
The Democratic Party is in the process of executing a controlled flight into terrain. Too bad that we are along for the ride.
"But understand we have crossed a Rubicon in the last few months that financial institutions and Govts can take money because they do not like that person or their activities."Breaking fundamental trust, much like how the Central banks have done so with Russia's Reserves of late. A currency crisis is now inevitable.