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Taleb and the one law πŸ”— 1546560005  

For those not aware, I'm a large proponent of the Stoic insights. One of the primary ones I promote is that virtue is not only it's own reward but it's only reward. The other half of this coin, which many do not discover, is that this is a good thing. When altruism is to be rewarded, it is all to easy to fake, with attendant and catastrophic costs to society.

One of the most prominent such failures in our modern society is what is popularly called "Virtue Signaling"; a term which once was simply referred to as "putting on a show". Politics is infested with this, as its practitioners overcompensate for their lack of real virtue with an abundance of such fake virtue.

In any case, it is heartening to realize that this is fundamentally what Nicholas Taleb has been groping for all these years. His Intellectual yet Idiot concept is an expression of this; however that is merely a generalization of his core inisght. Namely, that people are applying the wrong model entirely when it comes to dealing with uncertain events.

As explored here previously, people try a variety of schemes to curve-fit us into Procrustes' Iron Bed; the most popular of these are called "laws". In reality, a far simpler model works: "Do as thou wilt, but be prepared for the consequences". I have come to realize more and more that it's the latter half of that statement that nearly all of civilization's distortions are built to try and avoid.

Taleb's SITG (Skin In The Game) is a powerful argument for why not attempting to expand past that one rule is desirable; the further we insulate ourselves from consequence, the more foolish we necessarily become, until survival itself is threatened. He is pilloried by his detractors for "not providing answers", but they simply do not listen when he advises that rather than worry about the fact consequences happen (X), we instead concern ourselves with how our response effects ourselves and the system as a whole (f(x)) -- being prepared for consequences.

That core insight returns right back to stoicism. The wise stoic concerns himself not with the affairs of the world which are not under his control. He instead concerns himself with what he can control; e.g. the reaction to said events (f(x)).

As such it is unsurprising Taleb has drifted increasingly into the Austrian Economist camp. They are the most closely aligned with these particular insights; indeed his discussion of fat tail risk is quite a damning explanation of nearly all extant centralized economic planning's failure. As an apriori theory as to why information theory and risk must necessarily behave so, Praxeology is in perfect harmony.

The one law is simply a necessary lemma of the core praxeological axiom: "Man Acts on limited information and other means to achieve specific ends". This necessarily implies that circumstances may align such that practically anything may be seen as virtuous or licentious at the time, depending on the context understood to the actors involved.

As such, the wisdom of "live and let live" an "Love thy Neighbor" becomes ever clearer -- as one man's virtue may be another man's vice, all attempts to centrally plan and impose a return curve on the necessarily transactional relationships between humans are doomed to failure. All we can do therefore is simply gird ourselves against the reality of the situation in pursuance of our own ends.


Liberland Update πŸ”— 1546555966  

Hangin' out with EuroParl. Sounds like they're gonna get an embassy and start causing trouble.

The CIA's afghan death squads πŸ”— 1546536189  

MAKING FRIENDS

9/11 Insurance docs supposedly out there πŸ”— 1546535039  

In a ransom scheme against the insurance scammers involved in the towers coming down.

Blackwater back in Business πŸ”— 1546534969  

Sounds like Prince has secured some lucrative Deep State contracts now that the troops are getting pulled out.

Infra Hexa Vaccine: No antigens, plenty of poison πŸ”— 1546534829  

The new Italian government proving to get rowdy. Here's hoping it keeps up:
In Infanrix Hexa we found

chemical contamination from the manufacturing process or cross-contamination with other manufacturing lines; chemical toxins; bacterial peptide toxins; insoluble and indigestible macromolecule that reacts to the protein assay, but cannot be recognized by any protein databases.

We have not found:

Protein antigens of diphtheria toxoids, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B, haemophylus influenzae B, Poliomyelitis 1-2-3;

Formaldehyde and glutaraldehyde, phenoxyethanol, antibiotic residues indicated in the composition;

NY Slimes: Time to get out of Afghanistan πŸ”— 1546532969  

IT'S HELPING THE RUSSKIES!!!!!1

Trump: I fired Mattis over lack of results in Afghanistan πŸ”— 1546532909  

Damn straight. Guy is a moron COINdinista.

China makes it to the far side of the moon πŸ”— 1546532320  

Here's hoping they find something interesting, rather than it being a bust as cover for ICBM research like all other space programs.

Syria Update πŸ”— 1546532120  

The "Withdrawl" of US forces is really just slinking across the Iraqi border. Meanwhile, the YPG is making the smart move and working on re-joining Syria.

Another year, another gun grab πŸ”— 1546531670  

No more bump stocks, despite rubber bands working better.

US interest payments starting to explode πŸ”— 1545403498  

I predicted this would begin to happen when rates hit ~3% roughly 4 years ago. It's just basic math folks.

The troops are coming home from Afghanistan! πŸ”— 1545403196  

Not all of 'em, but still! This is the beginning of the end for the forever war. Put coal in all the neocons' stockings!

Alexa: Yep, a listening device πŸ”— 1545313141  

As suspected all along.

Why Trump left Syria πŸ”— 1545304432  

Trump decided that to prevent Turkey from leaving NATO, and from joining a deeper alliance with Russia, China and Iran, was more important than to further fool around at the margins of the Middle East. It is the right decision.
Realpolitik? In MY NeoCon packed administration? It's more likely than you think.

New World Next Year πŸ”— 1545304009  


Hodeidah assault fails πŸ”— 1545245289  

Ceasfire and UN observers moving in. The Saudis have failed.

Yet another reporter outed for making shit up πŸ”— 1545238931  

A Der Spiegel bozo this time.

The troops are coming home from Syria! πŸ”— 1545208620  

Finally, real good news on the war front! This is on the heels of the Yemen war pullback -- Has the antiwar moment finally arrived? It's probably too much to hope for a Christmas peace with the Taliban.

Iraq: Yet more ethnic cleansing πŸ”— 1545158328  

Surprise, Surprise

Team USA building up a Venezuelan War πŸ”— 1545158271  

Meddlesome folks who really should just let nature take its' course.

LOL Krugman πŸ”— 1545158005  

"I'm in the peculiar position of thinking the Fed should not raise rates, but it should not listen to the President, which is a hard position," Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said Monday on CNN's Quest Means Business. "There's a pretty good case for not raising rates now. But to not raise rates in this meeting would look like they're allowing themselves to be bullied."
The guy is literally the "daily struggle" meme now

More TX craziness πŸ”— 1545157775  

Don't wanna take a loyalty oath to Israel? You're fired!

Die in Custody? Your family is SOL RE getting justice in TX πŸ”— 1545157601  

"A loophole large enough to drive a truck through"

Latest Ginned up Syria CB πŸ”— 1544963765  

US Citizen killed by "animal assad". Like in WWI, I guess we have an inalienable right to wander around warzones which must be protected at all costs.

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